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Viewings: 5603The national intelligence Council of the USA has prepared an extensive report with forecasts and different scenarios of the situation in the global economy, geopolitics, technology, and a number of other issues until 2030.
The authors of the 140-page study, "Global trends 2030. Alternative worlds" believe that mankind is on the threshold of serious changes, and offer possible ways of its further development. Experts point out that rather than trying to predict the future, and see their main task is to "stimulate discussion" on the topic of global trends of the world development up to 2030. The report is based on analysis of data collected from 16 US intelligence agencies. In this format the report is published every four years.
The report shows how the various scenarios of the world development, and the "Megatrends", "black swans"and extrapolation of individual technological achievements in the future. Main scenarios of world economic development - four. It Stalled Engines, Fusion, Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle and Nonstate World.
Stalled Engines ("Stalled motors”), one of the negative scenarios of the future, describes the option of a prolonged stagnation in the world economy, the sharp rise of protectionism and a decline in the processes of globalization.
Fusion ("Merger”) - the most optimistic scenario in which the leading countries in the world arena actively cooperate in solving economic and geopolitical problems.
Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle ("gin out of the bottle”) - negative scenario, in many countries, increasing socio-economic and political tensions among countries are obvious leaders and losers in the world are growing antagonism between the key players, the potential of large-scale conflicts is growing.
Nonstate World ("Corporate world”) is a scenario in which the role of States in solving global problems sidelined, the role and influence of transnational corporations is growing.
Experts distinguish four main” mega-trend”. This growing influence individuals, strengthening of multipolarity in the world, serious demographic shifts and substantial growth of demand for food, water and energy.
The growing influence of individuals - "poverty reduction and increasing the global share of the middle class, while the more accessible education and better health will mark a tectonic shift in human society". For the first time in the history of mankind, under forecasts of experts, the majority of the world's population will live in prosperity, rather than in poverty.
The strengthening of multipolarity in the world - Asia to 2030 will surpass North America and Europe in terms of weight in the global arena. GDP, population, military spending and technological expenses will be higher in the Asian region. According to analysts, China will come out on top in the table of economic ranks of the world, ahead of the United States, shortly before 2030. According to forecasts, the Pax Americana, the era of American dominance on the world stage is coming to an end. According to experts, the US will be "first among equals", but will no longer be a strong leader.
Demographic shifts - here the report notes a growing population - from 7.1 billion in 2012 to 8.3 in 2030. In addition, analysts also point to the continuation of the process of population ageing.
The growing demand for food, water and energy. According to forecasts, by 2030 the demand for food on the average will grow on 35%, on water - on 40%, energy carriers - by 50%. As a result, some regions and even continents, in particular, Africa and the middle East will be a serious shortage of food and water.
In addition to the "mega-trends", the report also lists of the so-called "black swans" - i.e. trudnoporoshkuemye and rare events that can have a very significant impact. Among such "black swans" experts of the National intelligence Council of the USA are the following: the global epidemic, the collapse of the Eurozone, the war with nuclear weapons, solar flares, which can lead to powerful geomagnetic disturbances on the Earth, and a number of other possible events.
In addition, the report also provides an assessment and separate technological factors that will play a significant role in the world of the near future. In particular, we are talking about significant opportunities for biomodification human body, which can divide the society into those who can afford it and the rest.
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