Many countries themselves to limit global warming to two degrees by the end of the century. But most research shows that we cannot cope with the obligations. If not accelerate the transition to renewable energy and nuclear power, humanity safely slip limit, after which climate change will become deadly.

Regular report on this topic published by the world Bank. The authors argue that, if nothing is done, by 2100 the planet warms by four degrees compared to pre-industrial levels. Well, that in the winter will be warmer and the sea level will rise, you know everything already. The bad news is that this is not the only consequences, but to understand what still awaits us, is extremely difficult.

The report is the result of cooperation between the International expert group on adaptation to climate change the world Bank and the Potsdam Institute for the study of the effects of climate change and climate Analytics (Germany). The document not only offers a different point of view on the problem of climate change, but also fills climatological pause. Five years have passed since the release of the Fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change and the fifth will appear only at the end of next year.

So, what are the chances of 4 C to the end of the century? According to the authors, even if all countries fulfill promises to reduce emissions, will retain a 20 percent chance chetyrehjadernogo warming. The longer delayed the fulfillment of promises, the harder it will be in the future, because the infrastructure of fossil fuel that is created now expected to take decades.

The authors note that during the last ice age on the planet was only 4.5 °C colder than it is now. When this ice sheets covered most of the Northern hemisphere. Already in the atmosphere as much carbon dioxide as there was no 15 million years, and by the end of the century, the concentration will be doubled. Such speed is, apparently, has no geological precedents. So make forecasting difficult. But there is no doubt that nothing good is not worth waiting.

The sea level will rise by half a meter or more, destroying coastal infrastructure and exposing the dangers of many people. The most terrible heat, which we in Russia have experienced in 2010, will become the norm. Let's remind, she killed about 55 thousand people and caused serious material damage. Meanwhile, in many areas in winter will stand this temperature, which today is observed in summer. Remember that on land warming is faster than over the ocean. For example, in the Mediterranean countries, the average temperature will increase by 9 C.

Picture of precipitation will change: some river basins will be reduced in volume by more than 20%while others will grow. Crops growing now in some latitudes, not always can they grow. Meanwhile, the level of ocean acidity will stop the growth of coral reefs by 2030. By the end of the century, the coral will die out.

Even if atmospheric greenhouse gas levels by the end of the century is stabilized, the warming will continue. The temperature will continue to rise, and the pre-industrial level will be exceeded by 6 C. the sea Level will rise by 1.5 to 5 M. It is above the waves, which brought the recent sandy.

In addition, the paper raises the question of the critical point, after which the Earth and human society will not be able to return. For example, the decrease in precipitation, higher temperatures and increased salinity of soils due to the increase in sea level will have a negative impact on agriculture. At the same time, flooding the ports will not allow you to import and export the grain. The food crisis can lead to serious changes

If you're a little shocking, the authors have achieved the desired effect. Naturally, those who do not trust climate models, nothing will convince. Recently, for example, it was shown that the assessment of the extent of the drought exaggerated...

Prepared according to Ars Technica.