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Прогноз климатических изменений на 2010 — 2020 годыClimatic changes on the Earth can not only be gradual. Possible catastrophic shift that will require emergency, including military response.

This is the main conclusion of the report "weather report: 2010-2020", prepared by professional futurists by order of the Ministry of defense. Experts say that global climate change is able to completely destabilize the political situation on the planet. Among the "plausible" mentioned scenarios such as hunger in Europe and the rivalry between the nuclear powers because of scarce water resources.

In their forecasts authors - Peter Schwartz and Douglas Randall - proceed from the possibility that as a result of natural changes in entirely different laws will suddenly begin to live the World ocean. Europe, Asia and North America will lose then habitual warmth. And in the southern hemisphere, on the contrary, will be hotter.

According to scientists, the Earth has already experienced something similar 8200 years ago. Mankind is known, in particular, the recently happened historical phenomenon - Small glaciation. It lasted from 1300 to 1850. Due to bad weather conditions Europeans had to leave Greenland, faded civilization of the Vikings. Only with g. in 1319 year, the hunger won tens of thousands of people, the report said. But then humanity was much smaller.

Despite the tremendous growth of scientific-technical equipment, people and now extremely vulnerable to the forces of nature. The population of the Earth is huge, and a significant part of its population living in poverty, as well as in areas of high risk from natural point of view. In case, if catastrophic climate change, as a major hazards appear lack of food, water, strategic resources (not least of oil). All this creates the ground for wars. "Inevitable", seems to be a fortune teller and the spread of nuclear weapons.

"Because there are only five or six key grain-producing regions (US, Australia, Argentina, Russia, China and India), - the document says, is surpluses in global food supply is not sufficient to neutralize the consequences of harsh weather conditions at the same time in some regions, except in four or five. In conditions of global interdependence, the report says, the United States is becoming more vulnerable to the economic cataclysm caused by local weather changes in key agricultural and urbanized regions of the".

If anxious speculation will become a reality, on globalization, at least in the form as it is now, it seems, will have to put a cross. The report paints the picture of disunity and discord countries and regions, when in the world has dramatically changed climatic conditions and at the same time the idea of actual well-being. According to futurologists, in the unenviable position may be due to food shortages and mass Exodus of the population of Europe, which will become colder, drier, windy and will be more like Siberia". More too cold winters and hot summers can generate large-scale famine in China.

Best of all, as you might guess, must survive climatic disaster America, though it will not save from the reduction of soil fertility. But to sit back from other people's quarrels unlikely. It is possible to represent the probability that the possession of nuclear weapons by India, Pakistan and China will be involved in border conflicts due to flows of refugees, as well as rights to arable land and wealth of shared rivers. If you have tight entire planet, from the ugly scenes are not insured even bastions of democracy and modern civilization. Take a hypothetical conflicts in Europe over water and food. And the United States will curb the influx of destitute from other countries. The U.S. Department of defense is something to think about, formulating the tasks in the long term.

On the geopolitical stage, scientists believe, the most fantastic and contradictory features. "The United States and Canada can become a single whole, facilitating the task of protection of the borders, " the authors argue. Or Canada may close from other its hydropower resources, creating the energy problem for the US. North and South Korea can join the Union in order to create a unified education, has highly developed technologies and nuclear weapons. Europe can act as a single unit, settling problems of migration between individual European countries and providing defense against aggressors.

Russia, with its abundant reserves of minerals, oil and natural gas, can join Europe". But precisely because of his wealth Russia, it seems, should be on the alert. Perhaps she was destined to become a peculiar oasis, which will posratsa hungry neighbors.

The report was the following graph likely dramatic events associated with climate change, for in some key regions:


2012 - severe drought and cold are driving to the South of the population in the Nordic countries, which faces resistance from other European Union countries;

2015 - there is a conflict within the EU regarding food and water supply, leading to clashes and tension in the diplomatic relations;

2018 - Russia joins the EU, ensuring its energy resources;

2020 - Is migration of population from Northern countries such as the Netherlands and Germany, to Spain and Italy;

2020 - an Increase of skirmishes over water use and immigration;

2022 - the conflict between France and Germany due to commercial access to the Rhine;

2025 - EU close to collapse;

2027, - Increasing flow of migration in the Mediterranean countries such as Algeria, Morocco and Israel;

2030 - Almost 10%. the European population moved to other countries.


2010 - Border clashes and conflicts between Bangladesh, India and China simultaneous mass migration towards Myanmar;

2012 - Regional instability forcing Japan to build capacity external power influences;

2015 - a Strategic agreement between Japan and Russia about the use of the energy resources of Siberia and Sakhalin island;

2018 - China is to intervene in Kazakhstan for protection of the pipelines, which are constantly committing acts of sabotage insurgents and criminals;

2020 - Recurring conflict in Southeast Asia; participate Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, India, China.

2025 - worsen the internal conditions in China, leading to civil war and border wars;

2030 - Growing tensions between China and Japan due to the energy resources of Russia.



2010 - Disagreements with Canada and Mexico in connection with the growing tension over water resources;

2012 - the Flow of refugees to the Southeast U.S. and Mexico from the Caribbean;

2015 - Migration of Europeans in the United States (mainly the rich);

2016 - the Conflict with the European countries concerning the right to maintain fisheries;

2018 - Protection of North America along the perimeter, creation of integrated security systems, together with Canada and Mexico:

2020 - Ministry of defence begins to see the questions of border security and curb the flow of refugees from the Caribbean and Europe;

2020 - Growing oil prices, while security of supply is threatened by conflicts in the zone of the Persian Gulf and the Caspian sea;

2025 - In connection with the internal struggle in Saudi naval forces of China and the US contracted in the Persian Gulf - to direct confrontation.

Will it be possible to protect yourself from possible troubles? According to the authors of the report, fairly successfully natural cataclysm will confront the USA and Australia, which will surround himself with the fortress, because they have the resources and reserves, to achieve self-sufficiency". Russia, in all probability, will be harder to defend. "Imagine the countries of Eastern Europe, which increasingly difficult to feed themselves due to falling revenues of food, water and energy - paint a grim picture of the authors. They look at Russia, whose population is already declining, and wish to access its grain, minerals and energy resources. Or imagine Japan suffering from flooding of coastal cities and pollution of freshwater. As an energy source, it considers the oil and gas resources of the Russian island of Sakhalin".

The report, compiled for the Management of the General estimates of the Pentagon, does not call US immediately to prepare for a military response to possible climate change. For a start, they recommend preventive measures mainly scientific properties: to improve model predictions of climate, to gather into a comprehensive system model predictions of the environmental, economic, social and political consequences of climate change, to develop methods of evaluation of vulnerability of the country related to possible climate change, to create a group response to such disasters (for example, UPS providing public water and food) and to conduct relevant training, study "geoengineering options" control climate. Recommended ne to forget about the good old diplomacy.

It is quite possible that the recommendations will remain unclaimed for decades. Scientists themselves call not to be afraid of horrors, painted in the report. They stress that the proposed scenario is very unlikely. But such is the specificity of the activities of the Pentagon - "thinking about the unthinkable".

The lesson is not nearly as useless as it may seem at first glance. After all, back in 1983, the American defense Ministry could figure out how to be in case of death of the Soviet Union, reminds one of the authors of the document P. Schwartz, has long been advising US military. And in 1995 was considered the possibility that terrorists would use airplanes to strike on the WTC in new York.
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