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Viewings: 4220A few years ago Andreas Layer, a leading criminologist Hamburg, working with archival legal acts, came across a remarkable document. This was the so-called Lex Frisionum (the"Code of laws of the Frisians") - code of laws of the eighth century, which was mentioned a direct link offences with air temperature.
The climate in the first place
Layer - man is not superstitious. At first it seemed to him that it smacks of, as they say, early ignorant ages. But loving to reach to the fact criminologist decided to check unexpected version. It turned out, about the same, many centuries later, namely in 1748-m, speaking and the French philosopher Charles Louis de Sedona Montesquieu. And he bluntly stated: the East wind provokes the growth of suicides and contributes to the revolution. For this reason, the philosopher was a bill that society was perceived ambiguously.
The attention of Lamiera attracted aphorism Montesquieu: "Many things can control people: climate, religion, laws, principles of government, the examples of the past, manners, customs, as a result of all this formed the General spirit of the people". At the same time climate stood on the first place. By chance?
Contemporary Montesquieu - Marie Francois Arouet Voltaire - indicated that weather events due to the resignation of two English rulers. He talked about does incredible things. For example, would not be beheaded Charles I and deposed James II Stuart, if not "bad influence" Eastern wind...
The warmer the more dangerous
It would all be taken for fantasy, if in the end of XIX century the founders of forensic medical examination did not come quite independently, without reading the philosophical writings of Montesquieu and Voltaire, the same conclusion: the weather depends not only our mood.
Italian Professor, he is a prison psychiatrist, Cesare Lombroso in his work "Anarchists", having studied 939 revolutions and uprisings that occurred in Europe and America in the period of Antiquity and Middle ages, has proven that there is a clear summer maximum. American forensic psychiatrist Gustav Aschaffenburg expanded on the topic. He found that in 1913, especially a lot of obscene acts and crimes of a sexual nature was observed in July. From studying Lamiera works, which he previously had no idea, began a new life police Hamburg.
The rain - wait for the attack on the Bank
- Andreas what awaits us today?
- Wind of the North-West. The rain.
This means that it is necessary to wait for the attack on the Bank. Presumably after lunch. But to be alert have now. Lunch is not necessary. So stock up in advance of sandwiches and coffee. Sorry, nothing more can not tell.
This unusual forecast doesn't sound at the next final "battle of the psychics, and in a respectable establishment of the Department of Federal police in Hamburg. Degree criminal life is directly dependent on the weather. About Andreas Layer told reporters at a briefing after which took place in Hamburg international Congress on extreme weather:
Is that the direction of the wind, cloudiness, humidity and temperature affect certain crimes knew before. Just a medieval observation good was forgotten.
Today the weather for pickpockets...
Andreas Layer decided to compile a summary of the criminogenic conditions. He gathered many of weather information and compared with the Bank of statistical data by the police. In his possession was 200 variables weather divided by hours over the past twenty years plus data from 36 million 175 thousand police reports. To get through the mountain of facts, he would have required many years. Therefore, he was selected a relatively small share of two million records, which had the most marked characteristic for certain types of offences. It was found out that, as the song says, "nature has no bad weather, each weather is fine". Except, for safe crackers it alone, for pickpockets - other, for murderers - third...
It was discovered and the so-called all-weather crimes. For example, robbery, car theft, fraud and drug trafficking in any way with the direction of the wind and temperature are not related. Well, every rule has its exceptions. There are weather conditions that allow to accumulate aggression potential criminals - it ends violence. However, in General the following applies: the warmer, the more likely the activity of the crime.
Fit the textbook to cook
The technique uses Layer, of course, not new. He notes that not a pioneer in the forecasts. Have Andreas and associates from among foreign colleagues. Just as Layer, has a Federal police Memphis (Tennessee). Using computer modeling and technology IBM's Software Blue Crush, police USA successfully forecasts of crime. So, it calculates the probability (and even with the siting) of theft, gang wars, drug trafficking and other crimes.
- True, colleagues will involve not only the weather, but also a wider base of data, economic indicators, information on public events - matches and concerts, which of course allows you to pinpoint the degree of criminality, " Layer. - There are results. Since 2005 - the introduction in Memphis named software - the crime rate decreased by 30 percent. The indicator is very convincing.
Warm Saturday August evening in Hamburg can be happy only residents and guests of the city. For Lamiera and his colleagues, this means an average 82 of the act of cruelty. Quite different is stark twilight in March, when, despite humidity repair, it can be expected only 51 such an act. Too much, of course. However, the difference is noticeable. Women should fear attacks sex addicts types mostly in the warmer months. And the robbers are, as a rule, when it's warm and darker - crimes of this nature are clearly on the decline, barely shorter days and colder. It is necessary to fall snow - around the city for a day is hardly more than six robberies.
- You, Mr. Lemier, it is time to write the book "Criminal meteorology".
- Well, it's for meteorologists may sound insulting. Quite the contrary: "Meteorological criminalistics". What can be, and indeed to try...
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