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Для жителей мегаполисов повод подумать о завтрашнем днеThere are three most probable scenario disaster metropolis: the breakthrough of hydraulic structures, energy catastrophe, epidemic. The inevitable consequences - a food crisis, a local ethnic conflict and protracted social disaster. This is true for both States and for us.

I would have added a chemical or radioactive contamination in case of man made accidents. In the USSR loved to build a large industrial objects in the city. There are certainly advantages of this location, and with such disadvantages as a threat to the population in case of emergency and environmental pollution was not previously considered.

...needed a disaster of New Orleans to remind that for the last half-century, 70% of the Russian population is concentrated in the cities, which are at any moment ready to become a death camps. Let us not forget that more than half of the Russian population over one million, including Moscow, are located in areas of potential flooding, and 100 - in the zone of negative winter temperatures, guaranteeing irreversible catastrophe heating a day after the termination of submission of heat.

So, disaster cities. Regardless of the primary causes of the accident, sabotage, missile attacks or economic crises of origin, the main factor affecting - man-made disasters and systemic crisis of civil infrastructure. "System" means that the greater the scale of the catastrophe, the more certain factors disaster reinforce each other on the "Domino effect": energoconcept paralyzes transport, communication and water supply, paralysis of transport hampered rescue operations and food deliveries and so on.

Actually, it is in sharp mutual strengthening of affecting factors is the difference between the "real" Holocaust, when stability is losing the whole system begins its mass-destruction, from local crises and accidents, which are limited by separate subsystems.

Knowing the power and organization of our public services, dedication and ingenuity of the city officials, makes me uneasy.

So, back to New Orleans. The primary cause of the flooding obvious - not a hurricane, and the breakthrough pressure front protective dams. Apparently, the dam was built before the war in the course of Roosevelt's program "public works"when it was built the basic road network and many hydraulic structures. So this is not about "elements", namely technological catastrophe.

What we have in Russia? Hydraulic structures, some of which were built before the revolution, and the majority - to 60-ies, pretty old, and in the last fifteen years have not been repaired.
The status indicator of the entire hydraulic system of the European part of Russia - the growing shoaling water route from the Caspian to the Baltic (the Unified deep water system, EGU). The draft limitation makes use of the court with underrun, Kochetovsky hydroelectric every summer experiencing congestion, to skip through which the gateway is not enough water.
The real state of pressure front, holding the whole cascade of the Volga and other reservoirs unknown - no money, no solutions. Who is responsible for the condition of hundreds of kilometers of pressure front"? Had been doing this Minrechflot. Under Yeltsin, the status of Rechflota downgraded to the Department of the Ministry of transport. During the last "administrative reform" Rechflot again lowered, perepetchenov seafarers and drove out of the building at the Kuznetsk bridge.

And if the last years "bison" Rechflota in the rank of former Ministers and deputies ( see Annex - ed) at least regularly raised the issue on the boards of the Ministry of transport, today and raise it to no one. Worse still, these warnings and nobody to listen: after death the merger of the Ministry of Railways to transport all the key posts are occupied by railwaymen. What are the dam? Shipping oil tanks and - export, export!

Energy catastrophe. In New Orleans, she walked away into the background, but for the residents and the cities it can become a leading factor in the defeat. It is connected with ties to the grid system of water supply , which in "one million" already has no alternative, a large share of electrified transport ( including Railways, defining the evacuation and transportation of food) - at us it is much higher than in the US, and the vital importance of district heating. Depending on temperature, a critical period of irreversible destruction of heating services, is day or less.

From the point of view of civil defense, to a network power supply is tied too much, in particular, work stations and all communications - wired and wireless. Although wired PBX in Moscow still worked from a backup source ( how many days they will be enough - on experience of New Orleans, it is necessary not less than two weeks), cellular communication and computer networks collapsed in the first minutes.

Meanwhile, it is the preservation of the communication is a powerful factor of control over the situation, allowing the address to "ring out" the situation in any point of the city, to provide targeted salvation, to prevent panic, to ensure the controllability of the authorities and public services.
On the other hand, the collapse of telephone communication is in itself a powerful psychological factor provoking as panic and mass gangsterism - for example Orleans seen live.

It seems, is clearly visible, the dependence of services from urban infrastructure, and in case of serious emergency, the advantages of centralized be their shortcomings.

The food crisis is an unavoidable factor in any major disaster, regardless of whether she began bombing, flooding, energonaladka or default.

"Do you need money in a submarine?" - one of the most popular questions one of the developers of the Soviet system of governance for a "special period" ( in other words, in case of a nuclear war). Indeed, in the case of mass disasters money loses its value in the first hours of the disaster: further requires a system of normative distribution of food and necessities. And if in the Outback can somehow be saved in subsistence agriculture, in the cities of alternative distribution system is not and cannot be.

In the period of the two world wars distribution ( card) system , first introduced first in Germany and later in the UK and France, has allowed to avoid the pestilence of starvation of the civilian population and saved at least tens of millions of lives - primarily in large cities. Strategic reserves and readiness for the introduction of the distribution system - a standard measure of security of NATO countries.
As for Russia, its strategic reserves in large part, squandered, and a significant (by the way, in megacities halfway) the share of food is imported and traded literally "from wheels". Moreover, even in the presence of the state reserve a system of food distribution in the area of emergency - and such a system in Russia is not and is not expected.

How true those facts I do not know, but when was the last time the us state pleasantly surprised "care” and "foresight”? Generally, ever surprised ?

Next, also inevitable consequence of man-made disaster, which fully demonstrated in new Orleans - the mass robbery, looting and banditry, to which the Russian citizen with his Soviet mentality is not accustomed.
Note the characteristic details - in the first hours of new Orleans, the police and the authorities, using his official powers, left the disaster area, and the city centre has taken hold of the masses marauders their "African-American" area, which, judging by unambiguous hints, not only plundered and destroyed all that is possible, but also held the real ethnic cleansing white suburbs.

Let's call things by their proper names: the first consequence of the accident was on just mass looting ( it happens), but the real civil war with gunfights and explicit ethnic component. Apparently, whites in new Orleans in the coming years will be back no more than Russians in Grozny.
Given the number of ethnic colonies it is in Russian megalopolises, their sex and age composition ( men of military age), organization and abundance of unaccounted barrels, about the extent possible massacre can only guess. It is very likely that in normal inaction of the authorities in the disaster zone will immediately begin entry of organized gangs of marauders.

Blacks have few, and they require protection, but the various Caucasian criminal and not very groups galore. Given the growing tension in recent times between them and ethnic Russians in the event of a serious accident robbery,looting and cleaning on ethnic grounds is quite probable.

Draw your own conclusions.
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