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Год 2013-й, первые шаги в хаотичном «мире после»The current geopolitical mess, mostly predskazaniya HELP/Europe-2020 from February 2009 (GEAB n 32), was a result of the collapse of world scale, which will only increase during the year, in the midst of a global recession. The end of the period of leadership traditional powers will cause the 2013 global chaos appearance of the first contours of the world "after".


This will be a dismal year for the United States losing its status as the only superpower and reveal their inability to influence the construction of a new mechanism of global governance. For if the path of gaining advantages in the game desperately looking for all players, it was only ready to shock waves countries and regions can generally be relied upon to have an impact on the formation of a "world after". Associations of any kind - SELAK, UNASUR, MERCOSUR, Albania, CAEN, LAIE, NAFTA, OAS, AU, NEPAD, SADC, COMESA, ECOWAS, UEMOA, CEMAC, the Arab League, the EU, EFTA, ASEAN, ASEAN+3, YOU BRICS, KASCH, the Eurasian Union, etc. reflect such attempts, but they differ in the degree of development, uniformity and stability for the approaching storm.

The Euroland, born in crisis and growing with every wave is like a tidal power, Asia and South America are better prepared to become winners in "shuffled" the world, while the old powers, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Israel, Japan, etc. that do not meet the challenge of adapting to a multipolar post-crisis world and find themselves in a very difficult situation. Is extremely open world game that gives many chances to those who tries for them to grasp. This is evident in the middle East where people take in their hands the ability to change the region in accordance with their aspirations; in BRICS countries, where they are coming pawns are approaching depressive powers; and in Europe, in which each shaft of the crisis creates the energy needed in order to adapt to the challenges of tomorrow.

The economic situation (recession) and geopolitics (the main source of tension in the middle East, but also in Asia (1), and so on) do 2013 difficult and dangerous period with possible incidents, which increases the relative attractiveness of stable regions to benefit from the specified position. Of course, everything is relative, but violence around the world in 2013 reasonably makes the Euroland one of the few Islands of peace, stability and comfort... but for investors it will be one of the few regions that offer at least some foreseeable perspective for the future (2). This will create a powerful engine for output in 2013 from the European crisis.

The convergence with Euroland BRICS, another group of countries, which is a carrier of the future, would be an important contribution in favour necessary (3) reform of global governance. The next summit of the "Group of twenty" in September in St. Petersburg, for the first time outside the influence of the West is the last chance to tackle the issues of paramount importance for the global management of importance, including on reform of the international monetary system. Because most adapted in 2014 regions already gaining its place in the world after".

Shares of countries and regions in the world consumption of the middle class, 2000-2050 Source: OECD

In this 70-th issue of the GEAB, our team will analyze the collapse and reconstruction, starting with the catalyst for the current tension in the Middle East. A large part is devoted to Europe, seeking, through the Euroland, passes in the world after". To understand these events in Euroland need to understand what is happening with his key players, Germany, and therefore we conduct a comprehensive survey of the German political landscape and the upcoming elections of 2013. We also provide their assessments of country risk and an annual review of our projections 2012.

In this 65-m press release of the GEAB, our team decided to submit a review of his analysis of Euroland.

The outlines of Euroland in the world after the crisis

Media war against the Euro was useful, because it forced the Eurozone to undertake necessary to overcome the crisis reform. Here, of course, there was no revolution, everything was played according to the "rules of the game" (4), that is not catching up panic on the markets. Any loud statements, but compromises (5) and decisive actions committed after lengthy discussions. And gradually emerging patterns that enhance the Eurozone. Contrast to the passivity of the U.S. striking.

Specified should not overshadow many of the problems in Greece and Spain, as nobody said that recovery after the collapse of the property bubble and the historic scale of the global systemic crisis will be painless; in fact, these countries could gain more benefit from technical assistance and experience of other European countries. But the overall situation is improving, the last Greek debt restructuring was successful, deficits in Greece and Spain reduced, Italy efforts Monti (6) returned to the right path, themselves Anglo-Saxon media do not talk more about Greece leaving the Euro zone, and most recently the American press, even deign Europeans praise for the progress...

And let us not be mistaken: for those in the recession of Europe 2013 will be a difficult year. But at least through banking Union, which will begin operating in early 2014, at least through strengthening political integration or European stabilization mechanism - on the independence of the States of Euroland is already declared. This can be seen on the example of disagreement with the IMF on the issue of Greece: by 2015 the European stabilization mechanism will be sufficient authority and skills to allow the IMF to engage developing countries (or to save the US and the UK), and on European issues to focus exclusively for himself. This disconnection from institutions "of the world before and the United States allows the Euroland switch to constructive activities to adapt to "the world after the" using a specially-created tools.

Despite criticism, the visible signs of detachment and independence of Euroland is aimed at addressing the crisis and as they contradict what is practiced in the USA. This is saving (7) - that reigns in Europe and avoids indecision, visible in the American budget.

The resistance of Euroland also includes the Union of sovereign debt. After starting "project bonds", the aim of which is to Finance infrastructure projects of the EU, the process of consolidation of commitments will increase; it will also open the way Eurobonds. After the elections of 2013 have weakened the German Chancellor will remain (as we will see) little leeway to reject Eurobonds, which will require the SPD, logged on at that time in a coalition government. Because on the subject, except banking Union, not only had enough votes Germans, 2014 will be the year of Eurobonds. Despite the upcoming elections, Angela Merkel has already made a concession in the issue of Greek debt, sensitive for the Germans to the subject; but it is of course in its interests to ensure the normal functioning of the Euro zone, which is a large market for the country's exports.

Finally, being not the one on whose background you can show off, as I would like Anglo-Saxon media, the Eurozone attractive, despite the crisis - Poland wants to become a member, regional separatists do not think about leaving the Euro (8)... Another sign indicating that its position in the landscape after world", and that it is a territory where during the crisis, there is a zone of visibility - it provides member countries asylum from geopolitical turmoil.

The Euroland: towards a political Union

Thus, for the progress and despite the slight decline in 2013, the end of next year, the ideas HELP, will be marked by the end of the crisis of Euroland. World storm 2013 will cause interruptions, but will not lead to destabilization of Euroland, which finds that stands on a reliable anchor and more sustainable. Although they may not be completely visible, mechanisms to withdraw from this crisis, will be enacted, beginning in 2013, and they will gain in strength throughout, creating conditions for a distinct recovery in 2014.

However, in order for relief after the crisis had a strong character, should be taken measures necessary of democratization. Moreover, this requires the European Parliament. Paradoxically, the last facilitated by the marginalization of traditional national parties: in France, as was predicted in GEAB n. 64, undermined the credibility of the UMP (Union for a popular movement; approx.); in the UK UKIP (party for the independence of the United Kingdom; approx.) terrifies conservatives; in Germany, the CSU and the CDU too bogged down in "their" scandals... This marginalization can be explained by the increasing integration in Euroland: it became clear that henceforth the real power is rather on European rather than national level. It is therefore quite natural that the parties become more European, and Barroso asked the political parties to nominate for the European elections "main candidate" for all countries. After 30 years of total deafness to the question of democratization, a real revolution on the part of European institutions (9)! As a result, these elections in 2014, will be for the specified reason tokatalizatorom appearance of Euroland.

However, the national political aspirations, of course, always have a place, and European achievements are assessed in the light of the balance of power between States. The arrival of Francois Hollande, return to France voice that she had lost because of Nicolas Sarkozy, fully marching approximately in step with Merkel, gave an opportunity to be heard and to other voices, destroyed the polarization of Europe on the Franco-German bloc and the rest of it, and rediscovered the European debate, handy I must say. But the economic center of power, which is Germany - which is much compared to the current deplorable state of Affairs in the French economy - attaches considerable weight Angela Merkel.

From now on the actions of the Chancellor will be part of its election campaign, and it will avoid any unnecessary risks and proposals that could cause dissatisfaction among the electorate. In this difficult year, other heads of state will need to succeed in influencing indecisive Chancellor. To a lesser extent, the situation will remain, after the election, Angela Merkel will be even more precarious positions. In this regard, unlocking multilateral discussions in Europe - a positive sign.

---

Notes:

(1) for Example, the launch of North Korean missiles or Sino-Japanese disputes over Islands.

(2) In the chaos of the modern world the Euroland shows many features in common with Switzerland in the years of the wars of the last century in Europe.

(3) Necessary because, as established at the workshop of Euro-BRICS conducted HELP and MGIMO on 27-28 September in Cannes, without the updated global governance that would be harmoniously integrated heterogeneous new world powers, chaos 2013 will lead to a multipolar world, consisting of hostile blocks, a colossal geopolitical risk.

(4) When changing these rules so that they no longer were a matter only of markets: banking regulation, supervision of the rating agencies, etc.

(5) As was predicted HELP/Europe-2020, the election of Francois Hollande in France has renewed debate and discussion in Europe. This contrasts with Sarkozy, who blindly followed Merkel and was disappointed to other countries that are not part of the Franco-German motor". The new government all the other Europeans reacted with relief as a breath of fresh air.

(6) Monti expected retains influence despite theatrical performances, organize Berlusconi, whose little chance of election.

(7) In many countries, the economy is still metered; in others it is used to achieve the same effect as when the devaluation of a currency that is not allowed to rule the Eurozone.

(8) It is also partly can be explained appeared at the last minute the difference between the polls and the results of the elections in Catalonia: just before the vote, the debate focused on the potential release of the new independent region of Europe; separatist parties CiU (Convergence and Union; approx.) and ERC (Republican left of Catalonia; approx.) taken together, lost his place on the background of the expressed fears tidal wave of separatism.

(9) We know what we're talking: nearly 30 years democratisation of the European Union was "fighting horse" our Director of research and strategy Frank Biancheri, who passed away on 30 October this year. He was very unequal battle with the European, national-political and institutional systems that absolutely did not want to change anything in this area. Six years ago, seeing the gathering on the horizon, the clouds looming global crisis, Frank Biancheri knew that finally wield the tools of this democratization: the crisis itself will give way to political integration project, creating a new engine for the European building, freed from the burden of the UK, and thus adapted to the development of a new political Union: the Euroland.
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