Earthquakes and volcanoes can devastate whole regions. Solar storms threaten modern infrastructure. How often happen very large catastrophe? The researchers examined the time intervals: they turned out to be shorter than it was supposed.


Earthquakes and volcanoes can devastate whole regions. Volcano in Mexico. Photo: AFP/Getty Images


Geislerova easily acquire a reputation as predictors of misfortunes. Their warnings about natural disasters listen reluctantly, many consider them excessive. However, only in the last century from natural disasters killed four million people. Since the beginning of the century earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and hurricanes made the Earth a dangerous place. Actually, we live in between disasters. How long these breaks?

Now scientists have determined the rhythm of strong earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and solar storms. According to their analysis, disasters occur more frequently than expected.

On the basis of data on natural disasters for the past two centuries, a geophysicist Jeffrey Fishing from the U.S. Geological survey (USGS) estimated how often occur on average large disaster. A relatively small sampling time though, and leads to some uncertainty of the results, the scientist said in a special journal Geophysical Research Letters, but gives an idea of what a strong natural disasters happen more often than hitherto assumed:

• Extreme earthquake of 9 points occur every 25 years and less than half was thought until now. They threaten the collision of large continental plates from Japan, Indonesia and Chile. 9-point earthquake may, as a last time in Christmas 2004 and March 2011 off the coast of Japan, call ocean tsunami and empty regions the size of Germany. If it occurs in a highly developed country, the consequence may be the world economic crisis.

• Volcanic eruptions force in 6 points occur approximately every 40 years - twice as often than indicated in official catalogues. Such eruptions cool the earth's climate. The cities nearby are destroyed, the people there have little chance for survival. Coasts are threatened by the tsunami. During the eruption of Krakatoa in Indonesia in 1883, which reached 6 points, killed nearly 40,000 people.

• Extreme solar storms affect the Earth about once every 80 years, says Pete Riley from the research Institute of Predictive Science in a special edition of the Space Weather. September 1, 1859 such solar storm caused polar glow to southern Italy, Cuba and Hawaii, Telegraph lines threw sparks that ignited paper and cardboard. According to the study, the storm of charged particles such power in our days will hurt US only in the amount of two trillion dollars: the provision of electricity, communications and data exchange would cease for a long time.

One of the most intense solar storms occurred on Earth, perhaps in the 775 year. Rings in trees this time, contains 20 times more radioactive atoms of carbon C14 than usual, scientists reported group Fuzzy Make in the scientific journal Nature. C14 is formed in the air when cosmic radiation reaches the Earth. But what happened in the 775 year?

A possible source of radiation was supernova-supernova, a gigantic explosion. But then the remnants of dying stars should be visible in the sky and now, writes Make. It seems likely another scenario: you may at the time of the Earth touched strong solar storm, says astrophysicist Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado in boulder.

Historical sources confirm this theory, according to a climate researcher Mike Bailey of the University in Belfast in the edition of New Scientist. In the UK "to the surprise of all, from the land of snake crawled out, while the night sky glowed darkly" - quoted Bailey one of the Chronicles.

"Volcanic eruptions ask riddles experts - some of them are obviously interconnected: one of the eruption does not allow to determine the next," emphasizes Jeffrey Fishing, data on the frequency of natural disasters are only statistical data. However, the place of eruption, apparently, can be a warning, where there is another danger. Further research will soon be published in a special edition of Geophysical Research Letters.

Scientists Danilo Palladino from Sapienza University in Rome and Gianluca Sottili of issledovatelskogo Institute IGAG-CNR in Rome has processed the data of all known volcanic eruptions force not less than 4 points since 1750, there were 143. A surprising result: the volcanoes nearby, often erupted one after another, although their mahovye camera is not connected.

Eight pairs of volcanoes, located away from 159 to 500 km, according to a study erupted after an average of 1.5 years with the strength not less than 4 points. This relationship is so striking that scientists do not believe in randomness. Now they are wondering what kind of a telepathy may be the cause.