In North America will happen the great catastrophe on the water, organized person. The water in all the oceans will become black and you couldn't drink. Stop underwater currents, and winds will bring in all the land first, the intense heat and fire, and then very cold.

"Shale gas revolution", which for so long insisted importing countries gas, has come true: the US no longer need to import gas. However, in the rest of the world is nothing special if this does not happen: trunk gas pipeline not dried up, the LPG market is not schopnost. However, if enthusiasts will continue to increase gas production from shale rock, the market will increase competition. And still could happen environmental disaster.

What combustible gas in abundance is shale layers of the earth - small natural reservoirs, - has long been known. For the first time about their production in the USSR and the USA was raised back in the 60-ies of the last century. But then the conversation did not go too big required attachments, and too little gas can be obtained at the output. Besides, in our country have been (and still is) huge reserves "normal" gas, so we clearly not up to shale. But the U.S. over time have begun commercial production of shale gas. "Revolution" started in 2005 - 2006, when the Americans began to use the method of horizontal drilling and break barriers between layers by injection into the bowels of a special liquid (so-called hydraulic fracturing. This dramatically increased the debit wells and allowed to talk about the profitability of the entire venture. However, a significant role was played by government incentives "kanagaratnam" - by them to that moment were many American fuel-and-energy companies. And then the global crisis has pushed down the price of gas and its delivery from a distance was less profitable than the production of shale gas in the immediate vicinity of the major centres of consumption.

As a result, by 2010, the extraction of shale gas in the US has increased 40 times. This figure like to give experts supporters "shale gas revolution". They usually claim that the US soon, not only will fully satisfy their needs for blue fuel, but will put pressure on the world market of traditional exporters of gas. They say, shale gas is cheaper not only "pipeline" but liquefied. And Yes, it exists everywhere, including in the energy-dependent Europe. About the discovery of huge stocks of this fuel already stated, the Netherlands, Sweden, UK, Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine. They are all candidates for gas exporters. For example, there is a forecast that by 2030, the largest producer of gas in the EU will become Poland: it will produce up to 30 billion cubic meters of shale gas per year. Well, at first, this product will enable the Eastern European countries to end dependence on "Gazprom". This is indicated, in particular, Financial Times, commenting on the results held in may of the tender for production of shale gas to Ukraine: it won Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell and are going to invest in production $370 million.

But that's what usually silent supporters of the shale gas revolution is that shale gas, despite the rapid growth in production, ensured a little more than 10% of the total production volume "blue fuel" in the USA (the same amount was the coalbed methane, but that's another topic). The cost was more than $200 per thousand cubic meters, which exceeds the similar indicator "traditional" gas. No self-maintenance with gas through shale in the U.S. are mentioned: conventional gas production is reduced, so that the country intends to increase LNG imports. In Washington's plans, however, is the increase in shale gas production four times, but only by 2040. According to the forecast of the International energy Agency, shale gas production in the U.S. by 2030 will amount to 150 billion cubic meters. And by estimates of East European Gas Analysis, by 2015 there will be to produce this fuel more than 180 billion cubic meters.

In the US now turn to the production of shale oil. "The revolution spread to domestic oil production. And it can follow the same path that and natural gas" - said in the beginning of year the head of the us oil company ConocoPhillips Chairman and CEO Jim Mulva. According to him, shale reserves will help to restore the level of oil production in the country, greatly reduced in recent decades. According to the Ministry of energy of the USA, shale oil production is already underway in 48 States and is more than 20% of the total production. According to the forecast of the Ministry, 2035, its share will increase to 31%.

However, in shale sector forecasts - it totally unreliable. Nobody really knows how many of hydrocarbons in fact contain shale, how it can be removed and how long will live well. For example, in an average period efficient operation of gas wells in the U.S. in 30 - 40 years shale wells drilled in 2003, already "out of steam".

In General, shale gas and oil remain exclusively American phenomenon energy. Europe, despite statements to the commercial production of shale gas is still very far. According to the Vice-President of the International gas Union Gerard Ferrie if shale gas and will be produced in Europe, not earlier than in five to ten years. What you need to study the degree of risk during its production and to develop safe technologies.

The problem is that gas production from shale is required to drill multiple wells in the vast square. While in Europe, with free land napryazhenka. In addition, there is a risk of serious harm to the environment. The thing is that for hydraulic fracturing into wells pumped toxic chemical solution. And there is no guarantee that he will not get in aquifers used by man. This beautifully illustrated American Josh Fox in his documentary "GAZ-lend" (nominated for "Oscar" in 2010), which shows how the tap from Pennsylvania farmer flows literally "fire water": it flashes due to penetrate into the aquifer gas.

As practice shows, for the production of 10 billion cubic meters of shale gas need to drill three thousand wells on the territory of thousands of hectares. Then upload them 80 million cubic meters of water and 5 million cubic meters of various chemicals. By themselves, the frac - is not a harmless phenomenon. They disturb the structure of the earth, mixed aquifer and gas bearing horizons, and on the surface felt like a local earthquake in 2 - 3 points.

Meanwhile, in Europe as there was, and there is no consensus about shale gas. Purposeful exploration is less than a quarter of the total number of EU countries, and in three - Bulgaria, Ireland and France - it is strictly prohibited. However, according to Ernst&Young, France has the second largest reserves of shale gas on the continent. In the first place - Poland, the third - Norway, the fourth - Ukraine. The European public and many research organizations are increasingly oppose the oil shale development. And, probably, their voices if not prevent, delay start and reduce the shale gas in the Old World. And can, and in political circles common sense will prevail: still clean water and tranquility of the earth's crust is more expensive energy independence. In this sense, the pleasant fact is the recent refusal of shale gas Bulgaria - a country of poor and dependent on gas imports. Just in those districts, where they found large reserves of shale gas (up trillion cubic meters), there are practically no other water supply sources, except groundwater. And Bulgarians decided to preserve the purity of these sources. Unlike Ukrainians, for which, according to Financial Times, the prospect of reducing reliance on exported from Russia gas outweighed fears of environmental pollution.

So for the foreseeable future shale gas will remain the regional factor in the energy market of North America. However, the European market it has had a certain influence. Reexporter surplus LNG (very small), the U.S. brought down the price of gas in Europe. Just because the Europeans saw the alternative "traditional" gas. And, apparently, in the future, all exporters "blue fuel" (including "Gazprom") will have to take into account this factor and to pursue a more flexible pricing policy and geographical.

Andrey Milovzorov