Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted in its time the economic collapse of 2008, continues "please" forecasts. In 2013 it is expected a new collapse of the financial markets, he writes in his article in Project Syndicate.

According to the expert, which began in July, the rise in stock markets is gradually eroding, due to the lack of significant improvements in the world economy and growth prospects. Explaining the reasons for the seeming to him the inevitable correction, Roubini stages considers the main factors influencing the state of the markets.

The recession in the Euro area, writes economist, extends from the periphery to the center, having reached France, Germany under these same conditions faced with slowing growth on one of the main export markets of Asia. The UK and the Eurozone, have experienced a double-dip recession. The most economically strong commodity exporters such as Canada, the Nordic countries and Australia, is slowing in the face of declining demand in the US, Europe and China. Economic growth in the United States is kept at a minimal level of 1.5-2% for most of the year. Japan falls into a new recession. Developing countries - BRICS, Argentina and Turkey - also slowed in 2012

In 2013, said Roubini, the risks of a global economic slowdown will worsen including through the dissemination of the regime of fiscal austerity in most developed countries.

The danger is amplified by the fact that the crisis start to penetrate into the core of the Eurozone. As for the US, even if Obama and the Republicans in Congress will be able to agree on a budget plan, thus avoiding "financial break", spending cuts and tax increases will lead to slower growth in 2013 at least 1% of GDP.

Analyzing the reasons for the recent rapid growth in the markets of global assets, Roubini points to the release of the Central banks of significant volumes of issued funds, which has provided growth in the most risky assets. So, the fed has used massive is not limited in time quantitative easing (QE). The announcement of the ECB to the beginning of the program "direct purchase of the bonds" reduced the risk of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone periphery and the collapse of the monetary Union. The Bank of England has moved from QE to CE (credit easing), and the Bank of Japan has repeatedly increased the size of its QE operations. Monetary authorities other developed and developing countries t have cut their policy rates. All together it created a good climate for investors buying stocks, commodities and currencies of developing countries.

However, all this, according to Roubini, will soon cease to exert a positive influence on the markets, and the growth in the value of fixed assets will be replaced by the fall. Dampening effect on the markets will provide and the growing uncertainty of prospects of resolving the crisis in the Eurozone. Recall that in their previous performances Roubini predicted the various variants of development of events, beginning with the launch of the Euro area Greece and Portugal by the end of 2014 and ending its complete collapse.

Not the best background for the economy and markets creates and growing political uncertainty. Roubini is not preclude a resumption in the US party confrontation over the debt ceiling and a new round of struggle for measures medium-term fiscal savings. In other regions the upcoming elections also increase the risk.

This is complemented by geopolitical uncertainties: there is still the danger of a military confrontation between Iran and Israel; the likely new war between Israel and Hamas; "Arab spring" gives way to a gloomy winter of economic, social and political instability, and territorial disputes between China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam inflame nationalist sentiment.

All this, according to Nouriel Roubini, is the critical mass that next year will lead to the collapse of global markets.

However, as practice shows, forecasts "Burevestnik crisis" should be treated with a degree of healthy skepticism. In fact, his only absolute hit can be considered the crisis of 2008. However, this development was calculated not only to them - it was not necessary to be an expert to assume that follow mortgage madness early 2000s in the USA.

With Roubini you can bet in the sense that collapse can happen on the background of rather loose monetary policy conducted today the world's major Central banks. While the Central banks continue to throw out on the market the new batch of money and interest rates remain low, nothing prevents investors continue to buy financial assets, shares and commodities.

To provoke a real collapse capable of some extraordinary event - such as leaving the Euro and Greek default or use of nuclear weapons in the middle East. But first, according to the forecasts of the Roubini, can occur not earlier the end of 2014. The second option can be regarded as hypothetical.

In other respects, the experience shows, the global crisis continues to be slow character. It is not excluded that he will remain until the new world economic model

Sergey SEREBROV