The consequence of a collision of a planet with a large meteorite and the asteroid can be a global catastrophe. It is therefore important to learn how to predict such events. Recently William Brockman and his colleagues at the University of Puerto Rico built a new mathematical model, which evaluates the probability of the fall of the gigantic cosmic bodies on the Earth and even to Mars.

There is reason to believe that the biggest disasters on Earth were connected with the cosmos. So, in 1883 protochloride Indonesian volcano Krakatau is one of the strongest in the history of mankind. Waves raised by the explosion of the tsunami reached 30 meters in height. Was washed into the ocean 295 towns and villages, killed approximately 36 thousand people. Experts estimate that the power of the explosion was 200 thousand times higher than in the explosion of the atomic bomb in Hiroshima. The shock wave sent shudders across the entire planet, and for several years the earth's atmosphere has been contaminated by volcanic ash.

Not so long ago a group of astrophysicists from the National Autonomous University of Mexico came to the conclusion that then the Earth miraculously escaped collision with a giant comet Ponsa - Brooks, in 1883 just plying near the Ground. Next time it will approach us in 2024, in which individual predictors already promised to another end of the world...

Still a big mystery - the Tunguska meteorite. In the area of Podkamennaya Tunguska river, near the village of Vanavara, June 30, 1908 at about 7 a.m. watched a great ball of fire, flying over the territory of the basin of the Yenisei river from the South-East to North-West. The mission ended with resounding deafening blast on deaf taiga at the height of 7-10 kilometers.

Powerful explosive recorded observatories around the world. The flash of light was seen at a great distance - burst balloon turned into a pillar of fire by altitude of about 20 kilometers... On the territory of more than 2000 kilometers were fallen trees, and houses hundreds of kilometers from the epicenter of the explosion, smashed glass...

In 2007 researchers from Bologna led by specialist in marine Geology Luca Gasperini drew attention to the taiga Cheko lake, which lies 8 km to the North-West of the proposed epicenter of the Tunguska explosion. Gasperini and his colleagues noticed almost correct hemispherical shape. It also turned out that the bottom of the reservoir has the shape of a cone, and the maximum depth is about 50 meters. This may indicate that something huge shot in this place the tunnel and went into the ground. Italian scientists assume that "the culprit" formation of the reservoir was the fragment of a space body exploded at an altitude of 5-10 kilometers above the earth. The weight of the shard is approximately 1.5 x 106 kg.

A new model of Brummana based on the methods of extrapolation of the events of the past. That is, for example, scientists analyze sizes are available on the planet meteorite craters. But are taken into account and many other factors, as impact craters can disappear as a result of erosion, tectonic processes or the fall of new space objects.

The research team concluded that the meteorites that is similar to the Tunguska (about 10 megatons of TNT), can fall to the Ground once in a century and a body less than 1 megaton - time in 15 years.

Applying the same model to Mars, the experts concluded that there is a possibility of meteorite will be somewhat higher, as the Red planet is closer to the asteroid belt. According to scientists, body weight in a megaton fall on Mars approximately every three years.

See also: Scientists from Dubna will protect explorers of Mars

This information is important to us, because, most likely, people still will ever sent to Mars and will be there for at least several years. So the chance to witness the fall of a relatively large meteorite is quite high. And since the density of the Martian atmosphere is far below the earth, then the meteor strikes can cause more damage.

At the same time, none of the spacecraft exploring Mars until recorded falls on the planet megaton phone How this is consistent with the proposed model?

However, the flight of people to Mars in any case is fraught with danger. Considerable difficulties is the process of starting and landing. But even if the first colonists successfully landed on the planet, then they will need to build a base and to solve many other problems in conditions that are far from comfortable. Now, it appears, be afraid, more and asteroids... Maybe better yet rely on robots - in fact sending them to Mars is much cheaper, safer and more efficiently?