When your partner craps begin suspiciously often fall out of the "six", it is logical to assume that one side of the cube weighted. If you roll a "seven", something's definitely going wrong.

The temperature in the United States during the Texas drought 2011, according to the National oceanic and atmospheric administration research (degrees Fahrenheit).

Many scientists are using the analogy in the conversation that extreme weather events will increase with climate warming, which will act as a kind of weighting bones thrown nature. Do you still remember Russian heat 2010 and Texas drought 2011?

The immediate cause of both became meteorological phenomenon known as blocking anticyclone. But James Hansen of NASA and his colleagues say: "We can say with a high degree of confidence that such anomalies would not have occurred in the absence of global warming." The point is that although this phenomenon cannot be called a rarity, it leads to the extremes only because of climate change.

To such conclusion the researchers came as a result of analysis of changes in climate variability since 1950. The work covered summer months in the Northern hemisphere, because of winter have a wider variability (which complicates the detection of changes), and partly also because of a long and warm summer can lead to more serious consequences (especially to drought and heat)than winter. Northern hemisphere elected due to the fact that there is much more land than in the South, but because you can gather more data about seasonal fluctuations.

As the basis for comparison was taken relatively stable climate 1951-1980. Since then, the average surface temperature of the planet has increased almost by 0.6 C, while in the specified period it nicely fit into the curve of normal distribution: at any point of less than 1% of the globe covered extreme high or low summer temperatures, uklonivshiesya from the average by more than three standard units. The closer to the present, the wider the "bell" curve shifting toward higher temperatures, i.e. the deviation of three standard units now covers about 10% of the planet.

The article is written in very simple language, laid out in open access, and its summary Mr. Hansen published in the Washington Post: in short, everything is done to ensure that at convincing the reality of global warming.

The expert emphasizes that the reliance on personal experience - bad help in this matter, because the climate is changing from year to year. But still the "old" people should remember what it was summer in 1951-1980 years. The authors also note that it is not used computer models: in the case were actually registered data.

If no action is taken, by 2050 the average temperature will increase by a degree in comparison with the base period, the deviation of three units will become normal, five units are quite frequent.

It is better not to wait, when the hex like the dice will fall "seven" and "eight".

The study is published in the journal PNAS.

Prepared according to Ars Technica.