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Viewings: 7855Such is the nature of man, that he always wants to look forward into the future, to learn what it can to wait there. That is why, probably, soothsayers, who believe that only their predictions of the future truly correct, a dime a dozen. There is, however, a really unique persons, it is unclear how we are really able to see what is hidden from the eyes of ordinary people.
Nostradamus, de Cagliostro, wolf messing, Vanga - the names of these people at all on hearing. But there is one person who rarely put in one number with the name names, although many of its predictions surprisingly accurate, and happen exactly at the appointed time, and exactly the appointed way. We are talking about the greatest fiction writer sir Arthur Charles Clarke, who, along with Isaac Asimov and Robert Heinlein had the greatest influence on the development of the genre.
In General Arthur C. Clarke is not the only writer who challenging assumptions about the real future of humanity - such are the laws of the genre. Many of the predictions made in due time and Jules Verne and H.G. wells, and Ivan Efremov, and many others. Part of these predictions did come to pass, some of them cause today is that a smile. Quite another matter - Arthur C. Clarke. His prediction is focused on the development of scientific and technical ideas, but because, well knowing the subject, sir Clark could do very likely prognosis. However, it's not only that.
What you had to have intuition, insight, for example, in the far 1945-th year to predict the emergence of telecommunication satellites, which will be the diversity of communication in a geostationary orbit of the planet (by the way, still this orbit is called "Clarke orbit")?
The most interesting is that many of the scientists of that time, engaged in the development of communication systems, just openly laughed at science fiction, even theoretically, rejecting the possibility of communicating with satellites described by Arthur C. Clarke in his article "Extraterrestrial repeaters". But as sir Clark back in the eighties of the last century, when the role of the computers did bulky computers, could foresee really happened in 2000 "error Millennium", and to describe the possibility of negative consequences as a result of computer problems? So, in Arthur Clarke attended something inexplicable, which gave him the opportunity to make such assumptions.
Naturally, we cannot say that all the predictions of the science fiction exactly fulfilled. For example, the statement by Arthur C. Clarke that the signs of life are found in 2001 on Jupiter's moon Europe. Or that in 2010 we will be able to get energy from quantum generators located on the orbit of the Earth. But it is quite natural question: is there fault soothsayer? And maybe it we turned off of the path of development, lost, to put priorities? Interesting detail: sir Clark own century wanted to mention them in the predicted mass of the space hotels.
A century Clark will come in 2017, and would be very interested to learn from the writer himself and his explanation of unfulfilled prophecy. It is unfortunate that the writer had not lasted up to the anniversary - he died in 2008. Future literary career as a writer has predetermined its service in the British Royal air force during the second world war. Extremely curious young officer, always patiently income to his incomprehensible phenomenon exclusively his mind, Arthur C. Clarke immediately after the war, made a few suggestions for the future, based on excellent understanding of scientific and technical ideas and possible ways of their development.
It was then that he made the assumption that the emergence in the near future telecommunication satellite systems. Another forecasts young Arthur Clarke concerned his statement that will soon appear radar station with the help of which it is possible to track a moving target. This is in 1945 year! Among the predictions of the writer, brilliantly accomplished, one can also note the emergence of a global network the Internet, mass development across the planet of nuclear energy with a wide net of stations, cloning of a living organism, not only appearance, but also the improvement of pharmacy and the creation of antibiotics, the successful operation with artificial intelligence and several others.
At the end of the Millennium in 2000, 83-year-old Arthur C. Clarke published in English guardian" lengthy interview, in which he outlined his assumption of how to develop the technical and scientific thought on the Earth in the next Millennium. Disputes among scientists, technical specialists and Amateurs of fantasy relating to these forecasts writer, still continues to this day. Someone thinks predictions of sir Frank Clark gibberish and nonsense, someone, on the contrary, confirms the truth of their forecasts. Who is right? Difficult to answer, most likely, the truth, just as it always happens in such situations, lies somewhere in the middle. At various times, forecasts Clarke's future is not always copied each other, which is quite natural - science developed, and it was possible to make much more accurate forecast.
However already today it is possible to list the predictions of the writer, that never came true. By 2002, Arthur C. Clarke predicted depletion of earth's resources of oil and gas and, as a consequence of the emergence of stations that are in a position to produce clean energy due to the low-temperature nuclear processes. Fortunately, the natural resources we have, unfortunately, to produce clean energy, we have not learned. 2003 sir Clark called the year of revolution in the automotive industry, to replace the polluting gasoline and diesel engines will come environmentally friendly propulsion.
Next, 2004, Arthur C. Clarke was appointed the first successful experience of human cloning. Alas, while we are not there yet. the year 2009. The earth is accidental, unauthorized, explosion of nuclear weapons. Having experienced all the negative consequences of this, the governments of all countries decide to destroy anything already on the ground weapons of this type. Also not true. And we still have to live in fear of nuclear threat. According to Clarke, last year had to be developed device by which you can draw energy directly from space, and to use it practically without any restrictions. Moreover, the writer claimed that the result would be mass closure of all types of power plants and the elimination of transmitting energy lines. Also, to our great regret, nothing happened. How we lived, checking their needs with the movement of the meter and continue to live. The reverse side of the coin: what in this case it would be with Russia, living at the expense of energy resources?
For 2012, Clark predicted the emergence of aircraft, able to go into orbit, that is, aerospace vehicles. And this prediction science fiction remained fiction. No, in theory, nothing to bring the aircraft to a near-earth orbit, it is technically not difficult. The problem is, what would be the cost of such a trip. And today there is space tourists, paying a lot of money for the opportunity to admire the view of the planet from space. But it is hardly possible in the foreseeable future mass flight. Although who knows, maybe Arthur C. Clarke was referring to the creation of such holders and such fuel, which can be repeatedly to reduce the cost of flights. But, anyway, next year there will not be such a mass flight.
And after three years, in 2014, Clark predicted the appearance of the first space hotels in earth orbit the Earth. It is doubtful, too. Not because this is technically impossible. If exert efforts of all States of the world, actively leading space research, it may be possible to build such a space hotel, comparable to the orbital station. But what is it for? And the outcome of the costs? No millionaires, pozeluj relax in this hotel, you will not be able, at least partially, to justify spent on the implementation of this project funds. Rather, it is a hint of possible subjects for beginners colleagues fiction, weeks real idea of the near future.
Go next. 2015. Year, when Clark physics will receive full control of matter at the atomic level. The result of the conquest of science will be possible to realize the old dream of the alchemists - turn it into gold and other metals. Tempting! But again - and what is it to us? For the sake of interesting experiments is that! Practical application of gold today is really wasn't all that great, except, of course, jewelry. Where in complex technologies previously gold nothing could replace today are much more effective materials.
The date of the full abolition of money Clark called 2016. According to him, at that time there will be a new unit of currency valuables - megawatt hour. With all due respect to the talent of the Arthur C. Clarke, this prediction is more like absolute nonsense. Let's start with the fact that under the exchange unit writer knew a certain amount of clean energy, expressed in megawatt-hours.
In other words, it was assumed that the energy of that time will become so expensive that it is equivalent to the existence of money. But remember, if you believe the predictions Clark, six years ago, people had the opportunity bthe army of the pure energy directly from space, and to take in virtually unlimited quantities. But if the mankind will be available this amount of energy, can it be valuable? Of course not. The financial system is too complicated structure, mainly due to which there is a state. Why is it necessary to change one already approved, a unit of exchange, on the second, not clear from beginning to end? It's even not science fiction!
Go next. 2020. This date in predictions Clark meets the emergence of artificial intelligence, no way inferior to the man. This idea can be called a work of this fiction is too vague wording of artificial intelligence. Here we see that a technical problem in contact with the philosophical doctrine. What is the reason for Clark? The estate to make decisions? To respond quickly to current events? Or to be able, as people, comb your hair? And what is on Clark artificial intelligence? The unique computer program? The creation of some of aliens, the terminator, able to think and act? It is difficult to comment this prophecy, not knowing the true sayings of the author. But we go further. This same 2020, Arthur C. Clarke "planned" the launch of the first spacecraft to the stars. This is perfectly valid prediction, perhaps it will be so. If, of course, science will offer the option of space flight with a speed close to the speed of light.
On Mars, people will come, if you believe Clarke, in 2021. What can be. Would only make sense in that flight. One thing is to bring people to the surface "red planet"so that they hoisted beautiful pennant, and then flew back to Earth, and quite another to take any steps to a real Mars exploration. The following prediction is a bit shocking. 2023. The revival of the dinosaurs. Here we ordinary people immediately the question arises: and this is that us why? To create unnecessary problems? For purely scientific experience - please, but to tyrannosaurs, allosaur and all other Televisi ran around our forests and fields, as dilatory tourists - but why is this humanity?
Once the Creator eradicated dinosaur means that there was some meaning. And then, why dinosaurs? Zoologists say that during the existence of man from the face of the Earth disappeared thousands of other living organisms. Maybe better with them and to start?
2024. According to Clarke, in this year will be identified artificial signals from the center of the Galaxy. Wonderful from any point of view perspective. True, some not consistent with the opinion of the colleagues Arthur Clarke, the science fiction writer Stanislaw LEM, who proposed the concept of the origin "ancient civilizations". Although, actually, it is not even that. In the end, the two great fiction author has the right to nominate their own theory models of the future who is right - the time will show. It is not clear to the end also, what are these signals. Presumably, sir Clark assumed that intelligent civilizations. Only it is difficult here to break away from the long-standing stereotypes fiction and what will these contacts? To receive new technologies, or to banal star wars?
By 2025 sir Clark predicted the emergence of special equipment that allows the human brain to merge with others. The concept is very interesting, because if that happens, if the person is in a state will be in online communication with another brain, it will launch a fundamentally new industries - prototypes current film, television, media and so on. The education system will be fundamentally different, in order to acquire new knowledge, skills and capabilities, it is enough to connect to your brain the relevant blocks. Tempting!
2036 year. The most developed country in the world in industrial becomes China. Quite a valid prediction. Considering what will be this year the population of China. 2040 - revolution in the field of production. Useless die and agriculture, and industry. In the presence of raw materials and of matrix with inherent information "Replicator" will create anything. Here Arthur C. Clarke too modestly marked the appearance of the really crucial for humanity technology, the possibilities of which are unlimited. Imagine one huge, speaking in modern language, nanorobot capable of reproducing at a molecular level any environment, any substance. Thus receives eternal body in any form with an instant opportunity to replace any node or body, and to design at the molecular level any substances and articles, up to the organisms. For 2050 Clark predicted the appearance of a real cryotechnologies, the opportunity for people "freeze" itself.
Here Clark again contradicts their own predictions. Why freeze yourself, if you have eternal body, if you have unlimited own consciousness, if you do not do what God himself? Once science fiction authors have described the need to freeze people with incurable diseases to, restoratives 3-4 century, to find a cure for her disease. This is understandable. But why would freeze himself, if a man, in fact, has already become immortal? Arthur C. Clarke explained the emergence of these technologies by the appearance of a terrible boredom in humans, exempt from any kind of work.
Well, maybe, although such possibilities you could find more interesting things. All of the above is just a small part of predictions, written by Arthur C. Clarke. As already it was possible to notice many assumptions sir Clarke too close contact not only with the achievements of scientific and technical ideas on this or that subject, but also philosophical, ethical doctrines.
Yes, scientific-technical ideas able to make incredible things that only yesterday seemed completely unreal. But what will become the soul of man that she will change? She will gain and which will lose? If at least some predictions Clark will be implemented, people will simply cease to have to be just an instance of homo sapiens, and will turn into a kind of super human, which exceed the capacity of God himself.
Let's not talk about what it is extremely simplify very life of man. But this is another plus would turn most likely the same as it was for centuries, moral values in is not needed, only impede the development, stuff. Is it possible the survival of the person in such conditions? It is a pity that sir Arthur C. Clarke did not answer these questions, presenting readers "guardian" my vision of development of mankind on the Earth in the next Millennium. Sir Arthur Charles Clarke has not lived up to its centennial nine years.
And will not, unfortunately, to ask the great wizard to clarify one or another prediction. Maybe wrong just criticism assumptions Arthur Clarke, and not by their author? Maybe we are not able to achieve the depth of the sayings of the great writer, and this will only be the representatives of the next generations?
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