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Когда космический мусор поставит крест на космических полётах?At the Earth's orbit about 20 000 items more of the ball, of which only 5% of space satellites and other existing facilities. Another 19 000 - space debris.

Long time ago it was predicted that, having reached a certain amount, subsequent replenishment of space debris - the growth of its number and probability of hit in the functioning of space objects will move to self-sufficiency, even if the future generation of garbage people will cease. This scenario is known as Kessler syndrome, possible due to collisions, like what happened in 2009, when the debris was first hit by the current partner, "given birth" many secondary fragments (more than 2 000 only those that we can detect by radar ).

But here's the question: when the Domino effect would work? When the flight in near-earth orbits would remind a street blockade Leningrad with signs "that party dangerous during the shelling"?

Undertaken for NASA study, conducted by a team of industry experts, headed by Darren McKnight Integrity of Applications, showed that there are two ways: or EN masse to withdraw failed satellites in lower orbits closer to the atmosphere in which they should be burned, or to improve the collision avoidance system to a level unattainable until modern means of flight control.

Alas, both options have not yet been technological support. Simply put, here and now nothing can be done - first need to develop appropriate technologies. The first way also requires at least hundreds of billions of dollars of expenses only in this century, but who will give the money? NASA (by American standards) Abednego; Roscosmos... no, even to comment on this ridiculous version will not. "United humanity cannot even agree on how to bomb him Syria/Iran or wait a bit, what can I say about such is far from the minds of politicians issues as space debris...

Nevertheless, experts radiate optimism. The most powerful promoter cleaning orbit can be purely financial interest of space agencies, namely the greed of their insurers. Now the insurance object in orbit is equal to 1.5% of its value in a year. Only a small part of this share belongs to the danger of collision with space debris - accident for spacecraft until much worse. However, according to calculations, already low earth orbit there are areas where the probability of death of KA only from the wreckage of the above 1.5% per year. So sooner or later, the rising cost of insurance will become so high that to avoid cleansing actions will not succeed.

Alas, according to the study authors, if it happens late, the cost of such works will be huge, that irreparable damage to the industry of space travel in General.

Based on the materials of IEEE Spectrum.
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